Avolon forecasts $41bn profits for airlines in 2026 despite aircraft backlog

Irish aircraft leasing firm Avolon projects global airline profits of $41 billion (€334.88bn) in 2026, supported by strong passenger demand and favourable fuel prices.

The company warns, however, that a backlog of 4,000 undelivered aircraft at Boeing and Airbus may limit carriers’ ability to fully capitalise on growth.

Jim Morrison, Avolon’s chief risk officer, said, “What we've seen is that there's a handful of emerging countries that are benefiting from growing middle class populations, improving demographics, as well as the strength of a global connecting business models. So those three countries hold orders for 3,000 aircraft today, of which 900 are going to be delivered over the next three years.”

Europe remains robust, with airlines leading global profitability in 2025 and expected to do so again in 2026. Consolidation is reshaping the region, exemplified by Air France-KLM increasing its stake in SAS and Lufthansa strengthening control of ITA Airways.

Morrison emphasised the resilience of the aviation sector: “We are seeing uncertainty in the world around us – we're seeing political risk, we're seeing geopolitical risk as well, too. But this is an industry that survived through the 9/11 challenges, survived through Covid, survived through interest rate increases as well. Really resiliency and durability of aviation is part of our unique selling point.”

While pressure to reduce emissions has lessened partly due to regulatory rollbacks in the US, Morrison confirmed, “The industry is still very focused on improving its carbon intensity and adopting the latest and greatest technology to do so. The new technology aircraft that are delivering today, from Airbus and Boeing, are the best way for aviation to continue to reduce its carbon intensity.”

Discover the full breakdown of Avolon’s 2026 aviation forecast and implications for the leasing market in the complete story.